{"schema":1,"weekMonday":"2026-10-12","weekFriday":"2026-10-16","status":"final","sessions":[{"date":"2026-10-12","weekday":"Monday","kind":"regular","holiday":null,"moves":{},"summary":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, leaving the market mixed on Monday (MarketWatch). Microsoft marked a milestone that cemented its revival, but Nvidia and AMD shares fell after new AI announcements failed to energize investors, and Ciena, Lumentum and other optical stocks were the day’s biggest losers (MarketWatch). Investors also weighed Fed official Hammack’s warning that higher rates may be needed to curb an “inflationary mindset” and Trump’s defence of a Russia diesel deal (CNBC). All eyes now turn to the U.S. CPI inflation report due Wednesday, Oct 14."},{"date":"2026-10-13","weekday":"Tuesday","kind":"regular","holiday":null,"moves":{},"summary":"The Dow ended lower, snapping a three‑day winning streak, as chip‑stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. AI‑fatigue‑driven chip weakness persisted, marking a 16‑month low, while UnitedHealth Group posted Q3 revenue of $112.7 billion and earnings of $4.56 per share; investors will watch Wednesday’s U.S. CPI inflation report."},{"date":"2026-10-14","weekday":"Wednesday","kind":"regular","holiday":null,"moves":{},"summary":"The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July as the AI trade stumbled. The market now looks ahead to Thursday's US PPI wholesale inflation report."},{"date":"2026-10-15","weekday":"Thursday","kind":"regular","holiday":null,"moves":{},"summary":"The Dow closed sharply higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged comebacks as bond yields fell. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday at 5.10%, down 9 basis points from Wednesday. AI-related stocks such as Nvidia faced renewed pressure, even as CoreWeave rebounded amid the debate over AI spending. Investors will watch the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment report on Friday, October 23."},{"date":"2026-10-16","weekday":"Friday","kind":"regular","holiday":null,"moves":{},"summary":"The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended sharply lower, with the AI selloff dragging the market down. A broader tech rout hit software and chip stocks, and analysts warned that further pain could follow, while the U.S. Budget deficit swelled to almost $2 trillion, up 12% in a single year. Brent crude touched $110 as Iran escalated Hormuz attacks and Ukraine pledged to strike Russian refineries. Investors will watch the University of Michigan consumer‑sentiment report due Friday, October 23."}],"weekMoves":{},"events":{"released":[{"label":"US CPI inflation report (Wednesday)","reading":"3.7% year-over-year (September 2026)"},{"label":"US PPI wholesale inflation report (Thursday)","reading":"1.3% month-over-month, 6.3% year-over-year (September 2026)"},{"label":"US retail sales report (Thursday)","reading":"0.8% month-over-month (September 2026)"}],"earnings":[]},"rates":{"first":{"date":"2026-10-13","yields":{"3m":4.26,"2y":4.79,"10y":5.21,"30y":5.56},"prev":{"date":"2026-10-09","yields":{"3m":4.25,"2y":4.8,"10y":5.24,"30y":5.6}},"curve2s10s":0.42,"source":"U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve","sourceUrl":"https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve"},"last":{"date":"2026-10-16","yields":{"3m":4.26,"2y":4.74,"10y":5.09,"30y":5.43},"prev":{"date":"2026-10-15","yields":{"3m":4.28,"2y":4.77,"10y":5.1,"30y":5.43}},"curve2s10s":0.35,"source":"U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve","sourceUrl":"https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve"}},"releaseNotes":[{"date":"2026-10-14","eventLabel":"US CPI inflation report","text":"The US Consumer Price Index for September 2026 rose 3.7% year over year when it was released at 8:30 AM ET. The hotter‑than‑expected reading pushed 10‑year Treasury yields higher and sent stocks opening lower on the major indices. Yields jumped sharply, reflecting the market’s reaction to the elevated core inflation figure.","sources":["cnn"]},{"date":"2026-10-15","eventLabel":"US PPI wholesale inflation report","text":"According to MarketWatch, the U.S. producer price index rose faster than expected in the report released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, October 15. The surprise gain is lifting Treasury yields as traders view the data as boosting the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike.","sources":["cnn"]}],"headlines":[{"headline":"Rising bond yields and higher inflation leave the Fed trapped in a rate-hike dilemma","source":"MarketWatch","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-and-higher-inflation-leave-the-fed-trapped-in-a-rate-hike-dilemma-d34ba326?mod=mw_rss_topstories","days":1},{"headline":"Rising bond yields, higher inflation leave the Fed trapped in rate-hike dilemma","source":"MarketWatch","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/bulletins/redirect/go?g=536f0e6c-15f0-43ba-8f69-22abfd37ca83&mod=mw_rss_bulletins","days":1},{"headline":"PPI report: Prices rose faster than expected. A Fed rate hike looks more likely.","source":"MarketWatch","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/bulletins/redirect/go?g=aca1197f-2150-41dc-9373-99aeddceff21&mod=mw_rss_bulletins","days":1},{"headline":"Tech stocks plunge as Fed rate hike fears, AI funding worries mount; ASML, SK Hynix slump","source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/sk-hynix-samsung-softbank-stocks-asia-tech-rout-ai-funding-worries.html","days":1},{"headline":"The Fed wants to delay a rate hike. Will this week’s inflation data allow it?","source":"MarketWatch","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/bulletins/redirect/go?g=68e43e91-e7ca-4017-ac43-87915a34925c&mod=mw_rss_bulletins","days":2},{"headline":"Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America's biggest economic challenge","source":"CNBC Economy","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/treasury-yields-deficit-national-debt-ai.html","days":2},{"headline":"Oil falls after Trump declares 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine","source":"CNBC World","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/oil-prics-today-iran-us-saudi-arabia-crude-.html","days":1},{"headline":"Bank earnings to shed first light on how higher yields are affecting the economy","source":"MarketWatch","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/bulletins/redirect/go?g=0e284e54-dc9a-46d3-a385-f557790516e4&mod=mw_rss_bulletins","days":1},{"headline":"Why China is importing a record amount of gold — and what it means for prices","source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/china-gold-buying-interest-rate-.html","days":1},{"headline":"Fed officials want to hold off a rate hike this month. Will this week’s inflation data let them?","source":"MarketWatch","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-want-to-hold-off-a-rate-hike-this-month-will-this-weeks-inflation-data-let-them-a82754d1?mod=mw_rss_topstories","days":1},{"headline":"Oil prices fall as traders assess Russian diesel supply prospects and Saudi-Houthi conflict","source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-hormuz.html","days":1},{"headline":"IMF warns bond yields could see a 'disorderly' spike as debt, inflation risks worsen","source":"CNBC Economy","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/treasury-yields-imf-debt-inflation-.html","days":1},{"headline":"Paul Tudor Jones is bullish on oil, says it could rally another $20-$25 because of Iran conflict","source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/paul-tudor-jones-oil-iran.html","days":1},{"headline":"U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors await key inflation report","source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/us-treasury-yields-cpi-inflation-report.html","days":1},{"headline":"Oil rises amid growing Mideast tensions between Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia","source":"CNBC World","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/oil-rises-amid-growing-tensions-between-saudis-and-iran-backed-houthis.html","days":1}],"anchors":[{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-14T22:11:37.266Z","text":"On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, as Microsoft marked a revival milestone and Nvidia and AMD fell after new AI announcements failed to energize investors (MarketWatch). Investors also weighed Fed official Hammack’s warning that higher rates may be needed and President Trump’s defence of a Russia diesel deal (CNBC). On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three‑day winning streak, as chip‑stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down, with AI‑fatigue‑driven chips hitting a 16‑month low and UnitedHealth Group reporting Q3 revenue of $112.7 billion and earnings of $4.56 per share (MarketWatch). Wednesday saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq record their worst day since July as the AI trade stumbled, shifting focus to Thursday’s U.S. PPI wholesale inflation report (MarketWatch). Thursday will bring the U.S. PPI wholesale inflation report and the U.S. retail sales report, while Friday remains open for any market developments.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-14T23:46:21.685Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped. On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, as chip-stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July as the AI trade stumbled. The US CPI inflation report was released on Wednesday, showing a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September 2026. Thursday, the US PPI wholesale inflation report and US retail sales report are scheduled.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T12:11:31.923Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, as Microsoft marked a milestone and investors weighed Fed official Hammack's warning on higher rates. On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, as chip-stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July on Wednesday, as the AI trade stumbled; separately, the US CPI inflation report that day showed a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September 2026. Today, the US stock market has not opened yet, with the US PPI wholesale inflation report and the US retail sales report both due.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T13:43:18.052Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, as Microsoft's milestone and Nvidia and AMD's AI announcements drove mixed market moves. On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, due to chip-stock weakness. Wednesday's session saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq log their worst day since July as the AI trade stumbled. So far on Thursday, the market is reacting to the PPI report, which shows prices rose faster than expected, making a Fed rate hike more likely. The session is in progress. Ahead, the trading week ends on Friday.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T17:43:42.702Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, as Microsoft marked a milestone and Nvidia and AMD shares fell. On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, due to chip-stock weakness. Wednesday saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq log their worst day since July as the AI trade stumbled. So far on Thursday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have opened lower as tech stocks remain under pressure. The US PPI wholesale inflation report and retail sales report were released on Thursday. Friday is ahead.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T22:12:22.605Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, leaving the market mixed. Microsoft marked a milestone that cemented its revival, but Nvidia and AMD shares fell after new AI announcements failed to energize investors. The Dow ended lower on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak, as chip-stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July as the AI trade stumbled. The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged comebacks as bond yields fell. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday at 5.10%, down 9 basis points from Wednesday. The US retail sales report and US PPI wholesale inflation report were released on Thursday. The US CPI inflation report was released on Wednesday, showing a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September 2026. Friday's session is ahead.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T23:46:19.122Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped. The Dow ended lower on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak, as chip-stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July on Wednesday as the AI trade stumbled. The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged comebacks as bond yields fell. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday at 5.10%, down 9 basis points from Wednesday. The US CPI inflation report was released on Wednesday, showing a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September 2026. The US PPI wholesale inflation report and US retail sales report were released on Thursday. Friday's session is ahead.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T12:11:57.776Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, as Microsoft marked a milestone and investors weighed Fed official Hammack's warning on inflation. On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, due to chip-stock weakness. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July on Wednesday as the AI trade stumbled. The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged comebacks as bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending at 5.10%. Today, the session has not opened yet, and investors will watch industrial production data and the Treasury balance. The University of Michigan consumer-sentiment report is scheduled for Friday, October 23.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T13:43:33.723Z","text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped, as Microsoft marked a milestone and investors weighed Fed official Hammack's warning on inflation. On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, as chip-stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July on Wednesday as the AI trade stumbled. On Thursday, the Dow closed sharply higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged comebacks as bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending at 5.10%. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones are live today, with investors weighing Warsh's Thursday-night remarks. The University of Michigan consumer-sentiment report is slated for October 23.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"midweek","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T17:46:16.958Z","text":"The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their worst day since July on Wednesday, as the AI trade stumbled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped. On Tuesday, the Dow ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, as chip-stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged comebacks as bond yields fell. The S&P 500 opened higher on Friday, but heads for a weekly drop. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday at 5.10%, down 9 basis points from Wednesday. The University of Michigan consumer-sentiment report is scheduled for Friday, October 23.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"recap","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T22:12:03.607Z","text":"The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed sharply lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped. The US CPI inflation report was released on Wednesday, showing a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September 2026. The US PPI wholesale inflation report and US retail sales report were also released on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday at 5.10%, down 9 basis points from Wednesday. The next trading session will be on Monday, October 19, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report is scheduled for Friday, October 23.","sources":["cnn","fed"]},{"bucket":"recap","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T23:47:15.717Z","text":"The week swung both ways rather than moving in one direction. The Dow Jones rose about 200 points Monday while the Nasdaq 100 slipped. The Dow fell Tuesday, and chip-stock weakness pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their worst session since July on Wednesday. The Dow closed sharply higher Thursday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged comebacks as bond yields fell. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended sharply lower Friday on a renewed AI selloff and tech rout. The US CPI inflation report, released Wednesday, showed a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September. The PPI wholesale inflation and retail sales reports also came out Thursday. The next trading session is Monday, October 19, with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report ahead on Friday, October 23.","sources":["cnn","fed"]}],"days":["2026-10-12","2026-10-13","2026-10-14","2026-10-15","2026-10-16"],"narrative":{"text":"The trading week of Monday, October 12 to Friday, October 16, was marked by a decline in Treasury yields, with the 30-year Treasury yield falling 13 basis points to 5.43% and the 10-year Treasury yield falling 12 basis points to 5.09%, according to the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve. The US CPI inflation report released on Wednesday showed a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September 2026, while the US PPI wholesale inflation report released on Thursday showed a 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year increase. The US retail sales report also released on Thursday showed a 0.8% month-over-month increase. Treasury yields across the week moved lower, with the 2-year yield falling 5 basis points to 4.74% and the 3-month yield unchanged at 4.26%. The European Central Bank's deposit facility rate remained unchanged at 2.5% as of Friday, October 16. The next trading session is scheduled for Monday, October 19, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report is scheduled for Friday, October 23.","generatedAt":"2026-10-17T06:01:29.540Z","model":"@cf/meta/llama-3.3-70b-instruct-fp8-fast","promptVersion":"2026-10-10-archive-v7-lead-not-cause","gateStatus":"ok/ok/ok/ok/ok/ok/ok/ok/ok/ok/ok","sources":["fed"]},"notes":[],"problems":[],"provenance":{"finalizedAt":"2026-10-17T06:01:29.540Z","sources":["bls","bls-ppi","census-retail","curated-rail","sec-edgar","summary-log","treasury-curve"],"backfilled":false,"narrativeFailedAt":null,"narrativeFailedWhy":null,"narrativeFailedPrompt":null},"world":{"updatedAt":"2026-10-17T00:07:10.869Z","dollar":{"asOf":"2026-10-09","broad":121.6023,"broadPrev":{"date":"2026-10-08","value":121.4469},"broadWeekAgo":{"date":"2026-10-02","value":121.3848},"broadMonthAgo":{"date":"2026-09-30","value":120.9693},"changePctWeek":0.18,"changePctMonth":0.52,"rates":{"EUR":1.1193,"JPY":158.34,"GBP":1.3229,"CNY":6.692,"CAD":1.4269},"source":"Federal Reserve H.10","sourceUrl":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/","fetchedAt":"2026-10-16T21:37:10.681Z"},"centralBanks":[{"bank":"ECB","name":"European Central Bank","rateLabel":"deposit facility rate","rate":2.5,"asOf":"2026-10-16","lastChange":{"date":"2026-09-16","from":2.25,"to":2.5,"bp":25},"secondary":{"rateLabel":"main refinancing operations rate","rate":2.65,"asOf":"2026-10-16","lastChange":{"date":"2026-09-16","from":2.4,"to":2.65,"bp":25}},"seriesId":"FM.D.U2.EUR.4F.KR.DFR.LEV","source":"ECB Data Portal","sourceUrl":"https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/FM/FM.D.U2.EUR.4F.KR.DFR.LEV","attribution":"Source: ECB statistics. Change in basis points calculated by When Do Markets Open.","fetchedAt":"2026-10-16T22:07:12.194Z"},{"bank":"BoE","name":"Bank of England","rateLabel":"Bank Rate","rate":3.75,"asOf":"2026-10-14","lastChange":{"date":"2025-12-18","from":4,"to":3.75,"bp":-25},"seriesId":"IUDBEDR","source":"Bank of England Database","sourceUrl":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp","attribution":"Source: Bank of England. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.","fetchedAt":"2026-10-16T00:07:14.772Z"},{"bank":"BoC","name":"Bank of Canada","rateLabel":"target for the overnight rate","rate":2.25,"asOf":"2026-10-15","lastChange":{"date":"2025-10-30","from":2.5,"to":2.25,"bp":-25},"seriesId":"V39079","source":"Bank of Canada Valet","sourceUrl":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/","attribution":"Source: Bank of Canada. Change in basis points calculated by When Do Markets Open.","fetchedAt":"2026-10-16T22:07:12.194Z"},{"bank":"RBA","name":"Reserve Bank of Australia","rateLabel":"cash rate target","rate":4.6,"asOf":"2026-10-15","lastChange":{"date":"2026-09-30","from":4.35,"to":4.6,"bp":25},"seriesId":"FIRMMCRTD","source":"RBA statistical table F1","sourceUrl":"https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/","attribution":"Source: RBA 2026, CC BY 4.0. Change in basis points calculated by When Do Markets Open.","fetchedAt":"2026-10-16T22:17:10.767Z"}],"positioning":{"asOf":"2026-10-13","releasedOn":"2026-10-16","markets":[{"key":"sp500","label":"E-mini S&P 500 futures","netNoncommercial":-140995,"prevNet":-154070,"prevAsOf":"2026-10-06","changeWeek":13075,"netLongPctOfOI":-7.3},{"key":"ust10y","label":"10-year Treasury note futures","netNoncommercial":-988102,"prevNet":-896481,"prevAsOf":"2026-10-06","changeWeek":-91621,"netLongPctOfOI":-17},{"key":"wti","label":"WTI crude oil futures","netNoncommercial":100343,"prevNet":99060,"prevAsOf":"2026-10-06","changeWeek":1283,"netLongPctOfOI":5.3},{"key":"gold","label":"Gold futures","netNoncommercial":207879,"prevNet":210335,"prevAsOf":"2026-10-06","changeWeek":-2456,"netLongPctOfOI":52.4},{"key":"dollar","label":"U.S. Dollar Index futures","netNoncommercial":12919,"prevNet":12011,"prevAsOf":"2026-10-06","changeWeek":908,"netLongPctOfOI":24.9}],"source":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","fetchedAt":"2026-10-16T19:47:06.791Z"},"euroArea":{"hicp":{"period":"2026-09","rate":3.8,"prev":{"period":"2026-08","rate":3.2},"flash":false},"unemployment":{"period":"2026-08","rate":6.4,"prev":{"period":"2026-07","rate":6.4}},"source":"Eurostat","sourceUrl":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/","fetchedAt":"2026-10-16T22:07:12.194Z"}},"revisions":[],"geo":[]}